SVW vs ELV
Werder Bremen (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 47.8% fair 2.09
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
ELV win 29.9% fair 3.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.6% / 22.0% / 29.5%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.95
—
1.48
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.5% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 ELV | 9.4% | |
| SVW 2-1 ELV | 9.1% | |
| SVW 1-2 ELV | 6.9% | |
| SVW 2-2 ELV | 6.7% | |
| SVW 1-0 ELV | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).