SVW vs SGE
Werder Bremen (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
SGE win 35.0% fair 2.85
Expected Goals
SVW
1.94
—
1.75
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.3% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.7% | fair 3.49 |
| Both teams to score | 70.8% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 SGE | 8.5% | |
| SVW 2-1 SGE | 8.2% | |
| SVW 1-2 SGE | 7.4% | |
| SVW 2-2 SGE | 7.2% | |
| SVW 3-1 SGE | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).