SVW vs SCF
Werder Bremen (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 35.2% fair 2.84
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
SCF win 41.8% fair 2.39
Expected Goals
SVW
1.55
—
1.76
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | fair 2.80 |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 SCF | 10.0% | |
| SVW 1-2 SCF | 8.8% | |
| SVW 2-1 SCF | 7.7% | |
| SVW 2-2 SCF | 6.8% | |
| SVW 0-1 SCF | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).