SVW vs BMG
Werder Bremen (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 48.5% fair 2.06
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
BMG win 29.1% fair 3.43
Expected Goals
SVW
1.92
—
1.43
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | fair 2.87 |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 BMG | 9.6% | |
| SVW 2-1 BMG | 9.2% | |
| SVW 1-2 BMG | 6.9% | |
| SVW 1-0 BMG | 6.7% | |
| SVW 2-2 BMG | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).