SVW vs BMG
Werder Bremen (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SVW win 39.2% fair 2.55
Draw 25.1% fair 3.98
BMG win 35.7% fair 2.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.4% / 25.3% / 36.3%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.42
—
1.37
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 BMG | 11.9% | |
| SVW 1-0 BMG | 8.7% | |
| SVW 2-1 BMG | 8.5% | |
| SVW 0-1 BMG | 8.4% | |
| SVW 1-2 BMG | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).