SVW vs HSV
Werder Bremen (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SVW win 39.6% fair 2.53
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
HSV win 35.2% fair 2.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.8% / 25.4% / 35.8%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.42
—
1.35
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 HSV | 12.0% | |
| SVW 1-0 HSV | 8.9% | |
| SVW 2-1 HSV | 8.5% | |
| SVW 0-1 HSV | 8.5% | |
| SVW 1-2 HSV | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).