SVW vs HSV
Werder Bremen (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 46.1% fair 2.17
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
HSV win 29.9% fair 3.35
Expected Goals
SVW
1.67
—
1.29
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | fair 2.31 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 HSV | 11.2% | |
| SVW 2-1 HSV | 9.3% | |
| SVW 1-0 HSV | 8.7% | |
| SVW 2-0 HSV | 7.2% | |
| SVW 1-2 HSV | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).