SVW vs TSG
Werder Bremen (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
SVW win 29.6% fair 3.37
Draw 22.3% fair 4.48
TSG win 48.0% fair 2.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.3% / 22.1% / 50.7%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.38
—
1.94
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.6% | fair 2.81 |
| Both teams to score | 64.1% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 TSG | 9.7% | |
| SVW 1-2 TSG | 9.4% | |
| SVW 0-1 TSG | 7.0% | |
| SVW 0-2 TSG | 6.8% | |
| SVW 2-1 TSG | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).