SVW vs TSG
Werder Bremen (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 21.9% fair 4.56
TSG win 44.3% fair 2.26
Expected Goals
SVW
1.63
—
1.97
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.7% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.3% | fair 3.30 |
| Both teams to score | 69.2% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 TSG | 8.8% | |
| SVW 1-2 TSG | 8.6% | |
| SVW 2-1 TSG | 7.2% | |
| SVW 2-2 TSG | 7.1% | |
| SVW 1-3 TSG | 5.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).