SVW vs KOE
Werder Bremen (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 44.7% fair 2.24
Draw 23.3% fair 4.30
KOE win 32.0% fair 3.12
Expected Goals
SVW
1.75
—
1.45
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.1% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 KOE | 10.4% | |
| SVW 2-1 KOE | 9.1% | |
| SVW 1-2 KOE | 7.5% | |
| SVW 1-0 KOE | 7.1% | |
| SVW 2-2 KOE | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).