SVW vs RBL
Werder Bremen (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SVW win 26.9% fair 3.72
Draw 21.9% fair 4.56
RBL win 51.2% fair 1.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.2% / 21.6% / 54.2%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.28
—
2.00
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.4% | fair 2.75 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-2 RBL | 9.6% | |
| SVW 1-1 RBL | 9.6% | |
| SVW 0-2 RBL | 7.5% | |
| SVW 0-1 RBL | 7.5% | |
| SVW 1-3 RBL | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).