SVW vs B04
Werder Bremen (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 28.8% fair 3.47
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
B04 win 50.0% fair 2.00
Expected Goals
SVW
1.49
—
2.12
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.0% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.0% | fair 3.33 |
| Both teams to score | 68.2% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-2 B04 | 9.1% | |
| SVW 1-1 B04 | 8.5% | |
| SVW 2-2 B04 | 6.7% | |
| SVW 1-3 B04 | 6.4% | |
| SVW 2-1 B04 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).