SVW vs M05
Werder Bremen (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 41.9% fair 2.39
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
M05 win 34.9% fair 2.87
Expected Goals
SVW
1.71
—
1.55
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 M05 | 10.2% | |
| SVW 2-1 M05 | 8.7% | |
| SVW 1-2 M05 | 7.9% | |
| SVW 2-2 M05 | 6.7% | |
| SVW 1-0 M05 | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).