SVW vs SCP
Werder Bremen (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 69% · pregame locked (10-17 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SVW win 48.2% fair 2.07
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
SCP win 28.2% fair 3.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.1% / 23.5% / 27.4%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.75
—
1.25
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.36 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 SCP | 10.9% | |
| SVW 2-1 SCP | 9.5% | |
| SVW 1-0 SCP | 8.7% | |
| SVW 2-0 SCP | 7.6% | |
| SVW 1-2 SCP | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).