SVW vs SCP
Werder Bremen (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 63%
Match Outcome
SVW win 46.3% fair 2.16
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
SCP win 30.3% fair 3.30
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.9% / 23.3% / 29.8%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.75
—
1.35
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.0% | fair 2.50 |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 SCP | 10.6% | |
| SVW 2-1 SCP | 9.3% | |
| SVW 1-0 SCP | 7.8% | |
| SVW 1-2 SCP | 7.2% | |
| SVW 2-0 SCP | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).