SVW vs S04
Werder Bremen (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 45.7% fair 2.19
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
S04 win 29.7% fair 3.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.0% / 24.7% / 29.2%.
Expected Goals
SVW
1.59
—
1.22
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 S04 | 11.7% | |
| SVW 1-0 S04 | 9.6% | |
| SVW 2-1 S04 | 9.3% | |
| SVW 2-0 S04 | 7.6% | |
| SVW 0-1 S04 | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).