SVW vs VFB
Werder Bremen (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 32.2% fair 3.10
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
VFB win 45.5% fair 2.20
Expected Goals
SVW
1.52
—
1.93
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | fair 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 VFB | 9.3% | |
| SVW 1-2 VFB | 9.0% | |
| SVW 2-1 VFB | 7.1% | |
| SVW 2-2 VFB | 6.8% | |
| SVW 0-1 VFB | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).