SVW vs FCU
Werder Bremen (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SVW win 47.5% fair 2.10
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
FCU win 29.1% fair 3.44
Expected Goals
SVW
1.77
—
1.32
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.4% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| SVW 1-1 FCU | 10.6% | |
| SVW 2-1 FCU | 9.4% | |
| SVW 1-0 FCU | 8.1% | |
| SVW 2-0 FCU | 7.1% | |
| SVW 1-2 FCU | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SVW goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).