BVB vs FCA
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 63.8% fair 1.57
Draw 19.1% fair 5.24
FCA win 17.1% fair 5.85
Expected Goals
BVB
2.31
—
1.03
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.2% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-1 FCA | 9.7% | |
| BVB 2-0 FCA | 9.5% | |
| BVB 1-1 FCA | 8.4% | |
| BVB 1-0 FCA | 8.2% | |
| BVB 3-1 FCA | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).