BVB vs SVW
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (10-09 · FT 2-2 ) · lineup adj ×0.93 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BVB win 69.6% fair 1.44
Draw 17.5% fair 5.70
SVW win 12.9% fair 7.76
Expected Goals
BVB
2.37
—
0.78
SVW
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BVB ×0.933 (matched 10), SVW ×0.900 (matched 8). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.1% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | fair 2.03 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 SVW | 12.0% | |
| BVB 1-0 SVW | 10.2% | |
| BVB 3-0 SVW | 9.5% | |
| BVB 2-1 SVW | 9.4% | |
| BVB 1-1 SVW | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).