BVB vs ELV
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
BVB win 69.9% fair 1.43
Draw 16.0% fair 6.26
ELV win 14.2% fair 7.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 76.0% / 14.1% / 9.9%.
Expected Goals
BVB
2.83
—
0.96
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.9% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.1% | fair 3.70 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 ELV | 9.1% | |
| BVB 2-1 ELV | 8.7% | |
| BVB 3-0 ELV | 8.5% | |
| BVB 3-1 ELV | 8.2% | |
| BVB 1-0 ELV | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).