BVB vs ELV
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs SV Elversberg · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 68.3% fair 1.46
Draw 17.2% fair 5.81
ELV win 14.4% fair 6.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 72.6% / 16.0% / 11.4%.
Expected Goals
BVB
2.54
—
0.91
ELV
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 ELV | 10.2% | |
| BVB 2-1 ELV | 9.3% | |
| BVB 3-0 ELV | 8.6% | |
| BVB 1-0 ELV | 8.0% | |
| BVB 3-1 ELV | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: ELV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).