BVB vs SGE
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-24 · FT 1-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×1.10
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BVB win 62.0% fair 1.61
Draw 18.7% fair 5.34
SGE win 19.3% fair 5.19
Expected Goals
BVB
2.47
—
1.25
SGE
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): BVB ×0.900 (matched 10), SGE ×1.100 (matched 9). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.7% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.3% | fair 3.54 |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-1 SGE | 9.2% | |
| BVB 3-1 SGE | 7.6% | |
| BVB 1-1 SGE | 7.5% | |
| BVB 2-0 SGE | 7.4% | |
| BVB 3-0 SGE | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).