BVB vs SCF
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 57.6% fair 1.74
Draw 21.4% fair 4.66
SCF win 21.0% fair 4.77
Expected Goals
BVB
2.02
—
1.09
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-1 SCF | 9.9% | |
| BVB 1-1 SCF | 9.8% | |
| BVB 2-0 SCF | 9.1% | |
| BVB 1-0 SCF | 9.0% | |
| BVB 3-1 SCF | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).