BVB vs BMG
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 70.0% fair 1.43
Draw 16.9% fair 5.93
BMG win 13.2% fair 7.60
Expected Goals
BVB
2.51
—
0.88
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.1% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 BMG | 10.6% | |
| BVB 2-1 BMG | 9.3% | |
| BVB 3-0 BMG | 8.9% | |
| BVB 1-0 BMG | 8.4% | |
| BVB 3-1 BMG | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).