BVB vs HSV
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
BVB win 65.6% fair 1.52
Draw 18.7% fair 5.36
HSV win 15.7% fair 6.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.6% / 17.9% / 13.5%.
Expected Goals
BVB
2.33
—
0.93
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 HSV | 10.4% | |
| BVB 2-1 HSV | 9.7% | |
| BVB 1-0 HSV | 8.9% | |
| BVB 1-1 HSV | 8.3% | |
| BVB 3-0 HSV | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).