BVB vs TSG
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 57.1% fair 1.75
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
TSG win 22.0% fair 4.54
Expected Goals
BVB
2.14
—
1.21
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.0% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-1 TSG | 9.7% | |
| BVB 1-1 TSG | 9.1% | |
| BVB 2-0 TSG | 8.0% | |
| BVB 1-0 TSG | 7.5% | |
| BVB 3-1 TSG | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).