BVB vs KOE
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 66.2% fair 1.51
Draw 18.7% fair 5.34
KOE win 15.1% fair 6.63
Expected Goals
BVB
2.28
—
0.89
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 KOE | 10.9% | |
| BVB 2-1 KOE | 9.7% | |
| BVB 1-0 KOE | 9.5% | |
| BVB 1-1 KOE | 8.5% | |
| BVB 3-0 KOE | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).