BVB vs RBL
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 48.6% fair 2.06
Draw 22.7% fair 4.41
RBL win 28.7% fair 3.49
Expected Goals
BVB
1.87
—
1.37
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 1-1 RBL | 10.0% | |
| BVB 2-1 RBL | 9.4% | |
| BVB 1-0 RBL | 7.3% | |
| BVB 1-2 RBL | 6.9% | |
| BVB 2-0 RBL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).