BVB vs B04
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 51.5% fair 1.94
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
B04 win 26.3% fair 3.81
Expected Goals
BVB
1.95
—
1.31
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.9% | fair 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 1-1 B04 | 9.8% | |
| BVB 2-1 B04 | 9.6% | |
| BVB 1-0 B04 | 7.5% | |
| BVB 2-0 B04 | 7.3% | |
| BVB 1-2 B04 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).