BVB vs B04
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
BVB win 52.2% fair 1.92
Draw 21.3% fair 4.68
B04 win 26.5% fair 3.78
Expected Goals
BVB
2.10
—
1.42
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.2% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.8% | fair 3.14 |
| Both teams to score | 66.4% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-1 B04 | 9.3% | |
| BVB 1-1 B04 | 8.8% | |
| BVB 2-2 B04 | 6.6% | |
| BVB 2-0 B04 | 6.5% | |
| BVB 3-1 B04 | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).