BVB vs M05
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 63.9% fair 1.56
Draw 19.4% fair 5.14
M05 win 16.6% fair 6.02
Expected Goals
BVB
2.23
—
0.96
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.3% | fair 2.61 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 M05 | 10.3% | |
| BVB 2-1 M05 | 9.8% | |
| BVB 1-0 M05 | 9.2% | |
| BVB 1-1 M05 | 8.8% | |
| BVB 3-0 M05 | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).