BVB vs SCP
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 70% · pregame locked (09-12 · FT 3-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BVB win 70.9% fair 1.41
Draw 15.9% fair 6.30
SCP win 13.3% fair 7.54
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 76.7% / 14.1% / 9.2%.
Expected Goals
BVB
2.74
—
0.87
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.1% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 SCP | 10.2% | |
| BVB 3-0 SCP | 9.3% | |
| BVB 2-1 SCP | 8.8% | |
| BVB 3-1 SCP | 8.1% | |
| BVB 1-0 SCP | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).