BVB vs SCP
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
BVB win 70.8% fair 1.41
Draw 15.6% fair 6.42
SCP win 13.6% fair 7.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 77.2% / 13.6% / 9.3%.
Expected Goals
BVB
2.87
—
0.93
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.2% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.8% | fair 3.73 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 SCP | 9.2% | |
| BVB 3-0 SCP | 8.8% | |
| BVB 2-1 SCP | 8.6% | |
| BVB 3-1 SCP | 8.2% | |
| BVB 1-0 SCP | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).