BVB vs S04
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 64.8% fair 1.54
Draw 20.1% fair 4.98
S04 win 15.2% fair 6.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 68.2% / 19.4% / 12.4%.
Expected Goals
BVB
2.08
—
0.75
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 S04 | 12.8% | |
| BVB 1-0 S04 | 12.3% | |
| BVB 2-1 S04 | 9.6% | |
| BVB 1-1 S04 | 9.2% | |
| BVB 3-0 S04 | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).