BVB vs VFB
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 54.9% fair 1.82
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
VFB win 23.2% fair 4.30
Expected Goals
BVB
1.99
—
1.19
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.4% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 1-1 VFB | 9.8% | |
| BVB 2-1 VFB | 9.8% | |
| BVB 1-0 VFB | 8.3% | |
| BVB 2-0 VFB | 8.3% | |
| BVB 3-1 VFB | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).