BVB vs FCU
Borussia Dortmund (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BVB win 68.3% fair 1.46
Draw 18.1% fair 5.52
FCU win 13.6% fair 7.37
Expected Goals
BVB
2.31
—
0.81
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| BVB 2-0 FCU | 11.7% | |
| BVB 1-0 FCU | 10.2% | |
| BVB 2-1 FCU | 9.6% | |
| BVB 3-0 FCU | 9.0% | |
| BVB 1-1 FCU | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BVB goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).