ELV vs FCA
SV Elversberg (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
ELV win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
FCA win 36.3% fair 2.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.7% / 22.8% / 37.4%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.70
—
1.65
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.0% | fair 2.85 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 FCA | 9.9% | |
| ELV 2-1 FCA | 8.4% | |
| ELV 1-2 FCA | 8.1% | |
| ELV 2-2 FCA | 6.9% | |
| ELV 1-0 FCA | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).