ELV vs BAY
SV Elversberg (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 70%
Match Outcome
ELV win 16.0% fair 6.26
Draw 14.8% fair 6.75
BAY win 69.2% fair 1.44
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 9.8% / 12.8% / 77.4%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.10
—
3.14
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 79.5% | fair 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 20.5% | fair 4.87 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-3 BAY | 8.2% | |
| ELV 1-2 BAY | 7.8% | |
| ELV 0-3 BAY | 7.4% | |
| ELV 0-2 BAY | 7.1% | |
| ELV 1-4 BAY | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 6.9 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 7.6 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).