ELV vs BAY
SV Elversberg (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 72% · pregame locked (09-13 · FT 1-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ELV win 16.2% fair 6.18
Draw 14.9% fair 6.72
BAY win 68.9% fair 1.45
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 10.6% / 13.0% / 76.4%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.17
—
3.16
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.7% | fair 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.3% | fair 5.17 |
| Both teams to score | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-3 BAY | 8.1% | |
| ELV 1-2 BAY | 7.7% | |
| ELV 0-3 BAY | 6.9% | |
| ELV 0-2 BAY | 6.6% | |
| ELV 1-4 BAY | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 7.7 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).