ELV vs SVW
SV Elversberg (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 42.3% fair 2.36
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
SVW win 34.9% fair 2.87
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.0% / 22.6% / 35.5%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.78
—
1.62
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.0% | fair 2.94 |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 SVW | 9.6% | |
| ELV 2-1 SVW | 8.6% | |
| ELV 1-2 SVW | 7.8% | |
| ELV 2-2 SVW | 6.9% | |
| ELV 1-0 SVW | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).