ELV vs BVB
SV Elversberg (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 22.6% fair 4.43
Draw 20.9% fair 4.78
BVB win 56.5% fair 1.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.9% / 20.4% / 60.7%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.10
—
2.12
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-2 BVB | 9.9% | |
| ELV 1-1 BVB | 9.3% | |
| ELV 0-2 BVB | 9.0% | |
| ELV 0-1 BVB | 8.5% | |
| ELV 1-3 BVB | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).