ELV vs SGE
SV Elversberg (home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 21.5% fair 4.64
SGE win 37.8% fair 2.64
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 40.0% / 21.1% / 39.0%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.95
—
1.93
SGE
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.4% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.6% | fair 3.90 |
| Both teams to score | 73.3% | fair 1.36 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 SGE | 7.8% | |
| ELV 2-1 SGE | 7.6% | |
| ELV 1-2 SGE | 7.5% | |
| ELV 2-2 SGE | 7.3% | |
| ELV 3-1 SGE | 4.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: SGE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).