ELV vs SCF
SV Elversberg (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 33.3% fair 3.00
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
SCF win 44.5% fair 2.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.3% / 21.9% / 46.8%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.56
—
1.94
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.9% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.1% | fair 3.11 |
| Both teams to score | 67.6% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 SCF | 9.1% | |
| ELV 1-2 SCF | 8.9% | |
| ELV 2-1 SCF | 7.1% | |
| ELV 2-2 SCF | 6.9% | |
| ELV 0-1 SCF | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).