ELV vs SCF
SV Elversberg (home) vs SC Freiburg · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
ELV win 36.2% fair 2.76
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
SCF win 41.1% fair 2.43
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.1% / 22.4% / 43.5%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.60
—
1.83
SCF
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 67.0% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 SCF | 9.5% | |
| ELV 1-2 SCF | 8.7% | |
| ELV 2-1 SCF | 7.6% | |
| ELV 2-2 SCF | 6.9% | |
| ELV 0-1 SCF | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: SCF goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).