ELV vs BMG
SV Elversberg (home) vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 46.0% fair 2.18
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
BMG win 31.8% fair 3.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.4% / 21.9% / 31.7%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.93
—
1.58
BMG
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.9% | fair 3.13 |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 BMG | 9.1% | |
| ELV 2-1 BMG | 8.8% | |
| ELV 1-2 BMG | 7.2% | |
| ELV 2-2 BMG | 6.9% | |
| ELV 1-0 BMG | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: BMG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).