ELV vs HSV
SV Elversberg (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 43.9% fair 2.28
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
HSV win 32.4% fair 3.09
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.8% / 23.7% / 32.5%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.68
—
1.42
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 HSV | 10.8% | |
| ELV 2-1 HSV | 9.0% | |
| ELV 1-2 HSV | 7.6% | |
| ELV 1-0 HSV | 7.6% | |
| ELV 0-1 HSV | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).