ELV vs TSG
SV Elversberg (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 31.9% fair 3.14
Draw 21.2% fair 4.72
TSG win 47.0% fair 2.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.5% / 20.6% / 49.8%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.64
—
2.16
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.2% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.8% | fair 3.74 |
| Both teams to score | 71.4% | fair 1.40 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-2 TSG | 8.5% | |
| ELV 1-1 TSG | 7.9% | |
| ELV 2-2 TSG | 7.0% | |
| ELV 2-1 TSG | 6.5% | |
| ELV 1-3 TSG | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).