ELV vs KOE
SV Elversberg (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 42.4% fair 2.36
Draw 23.0% fair 4.36
KOE win 34.7% fair 2.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.1% / 22.7% / 35.2%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.76
—
1.59
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.9% | fair 2.87 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 KOE | 9.8% | |
| ELV 2-1 KOE | 8.6% | |
| ELV 1-2 KOE | 7.8% | |
| ELV 2-2 KOE | 6.9% | |
| ELV 1-0 KOE | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).