ELV vs RBL
SV Elversberg (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 25.0% fair 4.00
Draw 19.6% fair 5.11
RBL win 55.4% fair 1.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.5% / 18.7% / 59.8%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.44
—
2.45
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.5% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.5% | fair 3.92 |
| Both teams to score | 69.7% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-2 RBL | 8.8% | |
| ELV 1-3 RBL | 7.2% | |
| ELV 1-1 RBL | 7.2% | |
| ELV 2-2 RBL | 6.4% | |
| ELV 0-2 RBL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).