ELV vs B04
SV Elversberg (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
ELV win 26.7% fair 3.74
Draw 20.4% fair 4.90
B04 win 52.8% fair 1.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.3% / 19.5% / 58.2%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.40
—
2.32
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.2% | fair 3.55 |
| Both teams to score | 67.9% | fair 1.47 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-2 B04 | 9.1% | |
| ELV 1-1 B04 | 7.9% | |
| ELV 1-3 B04 | 7.1% | |
| ELV 0-2 B04 | 6.5% | |
| ELV 2-2 B04 | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).