ELV vs M05
SV Elversberg (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
M05 win 37.5% fair 2.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.8% / 22.5% / 38.6%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.72
—
1.71
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.5% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 M05 | 9.5% | |
| ELV 2-1 M05 | 8.2% | |
| ELV 1-2 M05 | 8.2% | |
| ELV 2-2 M05 | 7.0% | |
| ELV 1-0 M05 | 5.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).