ELV vs M05
SV Elversberg (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
ELV win 38.7% fair 2.58
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
M05 win 37.6% fair 2.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.2% / 23.6% / 39.1%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.55
—
1.60
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.0% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 M05 | 10.6% | |
| ELV 1-2 M05 | 8.5% | |
| ELV 2-1 M05 | 8.3% | |
| ELV 0-1 M05 | 6.8% | |
| ELV 1-0 M05 | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).