ELV vs SCP
SV Elversberg (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 64% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 46.0% fair 2.17
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
SCP win 30.8% fair 3.25
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.6% / 23.0% / 30.5%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.79
—
1.41
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.9% | fair 2.64 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 SCP | 10.3% | |
| ELV 2-1 SCP | 9.2% | |
| ELV 1-0 SCP | 7.3% | |
| ELV 1-2 SCP | 7.3% | |
| ELV 2-0 SCP | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).