ELV vs S04
SV Elversberg (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 65% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 43.7% fair 2.29
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
S04 win 32.1% fair 3.12
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.6% / 24.4% / 32.1%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.60
—
1.34
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 S04 | 11.3% | |
| ELV 2-1 S04 | 9.1% | |
| ELV 1-0 S04 | 8.5% | |
| ELV 1-2 S04 | 7.6% | |
| ELV 0-1 S04 | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).