ELV vs VFB
SV Elversberg (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
ELV win 27.0% fair 3.70
Draw 20.3% fair 4.93
VFB win 52.7% fair 1.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 22.7% / 19.3% / 58.0%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.44
—
2.36
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.1% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.9% | fair 3.72 |
| Both teams to score | 69.1% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-2 VFB | 9.0% | |
| ELV 1-1 VFB | 7.6% | |
| ELV 1-3 VFB | 7.1% | |
| ELV 2-2 VFB | 6.5% | |
| ELV 0-2 VFB | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).