ELV vs VFB
SV Elversberg (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 30.4% fair 3.29
Draw 21.4% fair 4.67
VFB win 48.2% fair 2.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.9% / 20.9% / 51.2%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.53
—
2.12
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.6% | fair 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29.4% | fair 3.41 |
| Both teams to score | 69.0% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-2 VFB | 8.9% | |
| ELV 1-1 VFB | 8.4% | |
| ELV 2-2 VFB | 6.8% | |
| ELV 2-1 VFB | 6.5% | |
| ELV 1-3 VFB | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).