ELV vs FCU
SV Elversberg (home) vs Union Berlin · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELV win 45.2% fair 2.21
Draw 23.2% fair 4.32
FCU win 31.7% fair 3.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.4% / 23.0% / 31.6%.
Expected Goals
ELV
1.78
—
1.45
FCU
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELV 1-1 FCU | 10.2% | |
| ELV 2-1 FCU | 9.1% | |
| ELV 1-2 FCU | 7.4% | |
| ELV 1-0 FCU | 7.0% | |
| ELV 2-2 FCU | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELV goals · Columns: FCU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).