SGE vs FCA
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 76% · pregame locked (09-06 · FT 1-4 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SGE win 49.8% fair 2.01
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
FCA win 29.4% fair 3.40
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.7% / 20.3% / 29.0%.
Expected Goals
SGE
2.22
—
1.66
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.3% | fair 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.7% | fair 3.90 |
| Both teams to score | 72.2% | fair 1.39 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 FCA | 8.5% | |
| SGE 1-1 FCA | 7.6% | |
| SGE 2-2 FCA | 7.0% | |
| SGE 1-2 FCA | 6.3% | |
| SGE 3-1 FCA | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).