SGE vs FCA
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs FC Augsburg · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
SGE win 51.3% fair 1.95
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
FCA win 27.8% fair 3.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.6% / 20.3% / 27.1%.
Expected Goals
SGE
2.23
—
1.57
FCA
| Over 2.5 goals | 73.1% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26.9% | fair 3.72 |
| Both teams to score | 70.7% | fair 1.41 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 FCA | 8.7% | |
| SGE 1-1 FCA | 7.8% | |
| SGE 2-2 FCA | 6.9% | |
| SGE 3-1 FCA | 6.5% | |
| SGE 1-2 FCA | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: FCA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).