SGE vs BAY
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 13.9% fair 7.21
Draw 13.6% fair 7.34
BAY win 72.5% fair 1.38
Expected Goals
SGE
1.29
—
3.34
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.0% | fair 1.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 16.0% | fair 6.25 |
| Both teams to score | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 1-3 BAY | 7.8% | |
| SGE 1-2 BAY | 7.0% | |
| SGE 1-4 BAY | 6.5% | |
| SGE 0-3 BAY | 6.1% | |
| SGE 0-2 BAY | 5.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 6.7 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 8.6 |
| 2 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).