SGE vs SVW
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SGE win 55.0% fair 1.82
Draw 20.8% fair 4.81
SVW win 24.2% fair 4.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.9% / 20.2% / 22.9%.
Expected Goals
SGE
2.20
—
1.35
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.1% | fair 3.22 |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 SVW | 9.4% | |
| SGE 1-1 SVW | 8.5% | |
| SGE 2-0 SVW | 7.0% | |
| SGE 3-1 SVW | 6.9% | |
| SGE 2-2 SVW | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).