SGE vs SVW
Eintracht Frankfurt (home) vs Werder Bremen · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SGE win 48.5% fair 2.06
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
SVW win 30.2% fair 3.31
Expected Goals
SGE
2.10
—
1.62
SVW
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% | fair 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.2% | fair 3.54 |
| Both teams to score | 70.3% | fair 1.42 |
Most Likely Scores
| SGE 2-1 SVW | 8.7% | |
| SGE 1-1 SVW | 8.2% | |
| SGE 2-2 SVW | 7.0% | |
| SGE 1-2 SVW | 6.7% | |
| SGE 3-1 SVW | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: SGE goals · Columns: SVW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).